Dein erstes Forum » rows -- not just on his TD passes of 14 yards to Jo

In some minds, the field for the 26th running of the Grade 1, $1 million TVG Pacific Classic at Del Mar consists of Beholder and California Chrome, with the other seven just afterthoughts. For others, the main contenders are not a duo but a trio which includes Dortmund, all competing for a spot in the Breeders Cup Classic in November.California Chrome is the all-time North American earnings leader with $12.65 million banked, winning 13 of 22 races including multiple Grade 1 stakes like this one. The mare Beholder has won 17 of 23 races including last years Pacific Classic. Dortmund, by comparison, has earned two Grade 1 wins (the 2014 Los Alamitos Futurity and the 2015 Santa Anita Derby) in his career but considering he missed by a half-length to California Chrome in last months Grade 2 San Diego Stakes he should be respected. Among the others, 2015 Grade 1 Gold Cup at Santa Anita Stakes winner Hard Aces may be competitive in this group as he won the Grade 3 Cougar II Handicap over the track last month. The rest look overmatched, with the exception of Dalmore, a 3-year-old facing older for the first time, who enters the Classic off a pair of wins including the Grade 3 Affirmed Stakes.Dalmore earned a career-best 113 Equibase Speed Figure winning the Affirmed Stakes last month. Although that figure was below the career best 120 career best California Chrome earned winning the San Diego Handicap in July (with runner-up Dortmund earning a 119 figure) and below the 115 lifetime best figure Hard Aces earned winning the Cougar II Handicap one day after Chrome, it is the next-best last race figure in the field. It is even better than the three figures Beholder has earned this year. Considering Dalmore is just a 3-year-old, he is not even near full maturity and has much better races ahead of him. Trained by Keith Desormeaux and ridden by his brother Kent, Dalmore comes from the same connections as Preakness Stakes and Haskell Invitational Stakes winner Exaggerator so there is little doubt the trainer and jockey know how to get a horse ready for a big race. Dalmore gets the No. 9 post position for the Classic, which will allow Desormeaux an excellent trip behind Beholder, California Chrome and Dortmund, who all like to race on the lead or close to the pace in the early stages. As such, Dalmore has a nice shot to outrun his double-digit odds in the Pacific Classic.California Chrome didnt lose a step between his Group 1 Dubai World Cup victory in March and his San Diego Handicap win last month when he earned a career-best 120 figure. One of only three horses among the nine entered in the Classic to have won at a mile and a quarter, California Chrome has done so four times, proving he is truly a classic distance runner. With all horses except the mare Beholder and 3-year-old Dalmore assigned the same 124 pounds, there is no handicap in that department and from the rail regular jockey Victor Espinoza can go to the early lead or sit behind Dortmund or Beholder if either one of them choose to lead from the start. Personally, I cant find a single flaw that would have me believe California Chrome may be the anything other than the most probable to win the Classic. However, because he will be the prohibitive favorite he may not offer the most value as a win bet.Beholder is undoubtedly one of the best female stars in horse racing, having won 17 of 23 races and nearly $5 million. Never worse than second in six career races at Del Mar, she dispatched a field of 10 in last years Classic with a 116 figure, one below a career-best 117 earned winning the 2013 Breeders Cup Distaff. Last years Classic was her first attempt at this mile and a quarter trip and she handled it with ease. This year Beholder won her first two races but was upset in the Clement L. Hirsch Stakes over the track last month. Regular rider Gary Stevens knows her well and even though her recent figures of 105 and 107 seem far from the 120 and 110 California Chrome earned this year in North America, Beholder stepped up from a 106 figure to 116 in last years Classic so could be up to the task once more.For the exacta, considering Dalmore opens at 20-1 odds, he represents value even if he finishes second, so playing exacta boxes consisting of Dalmore/Beholder, Dalmore/California Chrome and Dalmore/Dortmund offers excellent potential return for the risk.The rest of the Pacific Classic field, with their best representative Equibase Speed Figures, is Dortmund (119), Hard Aces (115), Hoppertunity (114), Imperative (114), War Story (102) and Win the Space (112).Contenders, in preference order1. Dalmore 2. California Chrome 3. BeholderYou can get Ellis entire detailed analysis and selections for Del Mar at Equibase.com.For more stories like this check out Americas Best Racing. Wholesale Custom Nuggets Shirts .Y. - Rob Manfred was promoted Monday to Major League Baseballs chief operating officer, which may make him a candidate to succeed Bud Selig as commissioner. Custom Nuggets Jersey China . Robredo, ranked No. 16, bounced back from an upset loss to Leonardo Mayer in the second round of the Royal Guard Open in Chile last week to down Carreno Busta in 1 hour, 25 minutes. On a day filled mostly with qualifying matches, fifth-seeded Marcel Granollers of Spain also entered the second with a 7-5, 3-6, 6-2 win over Aljaz Bedene of Slovenia, while Guido Pella of Argentina defeated Guillermo Garcia-Lopez of Spain 7-6 (6), 6-4 to advance. http://www.customnuggetsjersey.com/ . Walcott is available for Saturdays home match against Southampton as Arsenal looks to extend its two-point lead at the top of the Premier League. The Gunners are currently the second highest scorers in the league but Wenger insists Walcott will add something extra to his team. Custom Alex English Jersey . "It was nerve-wracking, but we pulled through," said Collaros, who threw four touchdown passes to lead the Toronto Argonauts (8-4) to a 33-27 win over the Calgary Stampeders (9-3) in front of 28,781 fans at McMahon Stadium. Nuggets Jerseys China . McCarthy, a player who played some games in the second tier for Wigan at the start of this season, would go on to shine inside Evertons midfield, outplaying the man he was brought in to replace, on one of the grandest stages in English football. On Saturday, it was fitting that Manchester Uniteds most recent dagger into the chest was delivered by Frenchman Yohan Cabaye, a wonderfully gifted central midfielder who put on an outstanding effort for Newcastle at Old Trafford. There was a valuable lesson contained within a $411,188.06 payout in Gulfstream Parks Rainbow Pick 6 Jackpot on Aug. 6.The handicapping genius who was the only one to correctly select all six winners made excellent use of a $2,160 bankroll, electing to use 10 of the 11 horses in one of the races.While its hardly unusual for a Pick 6 player to wheel a race (using all of the horses in that race) or include virtually all of the horses, what stood out here was the horse left off the ticket was the favorite in the race.And thats why they call it gambling.By taking a stand against the favorite -- who finished fifth -- that handicapper wound up having the $59.40 winner on that ticket and was ultimately rewarded with a life-changing payoff.While cashing a Pick 6 ticket would be a dream come true for a modest player, anyone can benefit from the wagering strategy and confidence that went into that huge payday at Gulfstream Park.As much as some handicappers like to focus their wagers on favorites so that they can cash a winning ticket more often, these chalk players are actually working against the odds. Even if favorites win 33 percent of the time, that means they lose 67 percent of the time.Its those numbers that illustrate why a handicapper would always be wise to exploit a vulnerable favorite. Youre chasing bigger payoffs, and, yes, about 67 percent of the time it makes sense to bet against the chalk.While a handicapper should always strive to pick winners, sometimes it can work out just as well when you find a race where you do not like the favorite. By spreading your wagers a little more than usual in that race, you just might cash a ticket that puts you in the black for the rest of the day.And if youre worried that the horse everyone but you seems to like will beat you, remember, about 67 percent of the time that horse will lose. So go ahead, take a chance.In case you have forgotten already, thats why they call it gambling.To help in understanding when it makes sense to latch on to a favorite or avoid it like a cold, lets take a look at whats happening at the Graveyard of Favorites, Saratoga Race Course -- which is actually embracing the chalk in a manner more befitting Aqueducts inner-track meet.From July 22 through Aug. 12, there have been 187 races at the Spa -- not including steeplechase events. In those races, the betting favorite has prevailed in 72 of them, which amounts to a very respectable rate of 38.5 percent.With so many favorites crossing the finish line first, it would seem like nirvana for chalk players. But if they tried to stretch their luck into the exotics, they are no doubt struggling.While betting the two favorites in an exaacta might seem quite sensible while youre analyzing past performances, in reality betting on the two favorites in a race, in the long run, accounts for low payoffs and a low winning percentage.ddddddddddddAs much as the second choice has indeed wound up second behind the favorite more often than any other option in the wagering, your chances of cashing on the chalk running 1-2 are less than you might think.Of those 72 wins by favorites at Saratoga, on 25 occasions the second choice finished second. That might sound good in theory, but it averages out to a chalk exacta happening 13.7 percent of the time -- which is a rather low mark considering that 11 of those exactas paid $10.80 or less.Interestingly, playing the second choice over the favorite in the exacta has generated much weaker results as it has happened just nine times, or 4.8% of the time. Box the two favorites and youre winning at a rate of just 18.2% (34 of 187) -- which means youre losing 81.8% of the time.What can help in putting those numbers to work for you is an understanding of when the favorite is more likely to shine or stub its toe.In breaking those numbers down by the categories of races, turf claiming races have been a weak area for favorites.So far favorites have been victorious in just 22.7 percent of turf claimers (5 of 22 races) and have been first or second in 10 of the 22 races (45.5%).In contrast, the chalk has thrived in dirt claimers. Favorites have won 17 of 35 (48.5%) main-track claiming races and have been first or second in 25 of those 35 races for a stellar mark of 71.4%.Favorites have also excelled in dirt stakes, where they have won 7 of 15 races (46.6%) and been first or second 12 of 15 times (75%), and turf stakes, where favorites have won 6 of 9 races (66.6%) with no runner-up finishes.If youre looking for an opportunity to cast a thumbs down on a favorite, the best spots have been maiden special weight races on dirt (1 for 5, 20%), maiden special weight races for New York state-breds on dirt (0 for 4), starter allowance races on turf (0 for 4) and allowance races on turf (4 of 14, 28.5%).Keep all of those numbers in mind the next time you stumble across a favorite that you dont like. Rather than follow the pack and reluctantly back it, by sticking to your first instincts, youll actually have the percentages on your side and you could be staring at your big payoff of the day.Yes, taking a gamble can certainly have its rewards, even if youre not playing the Pick 6.For more stories like this check out Americas Best Racing. ' ' '